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Trying to predict the Oscars? Just look to Hollywood's guilds



The Golden Globe Awards are officially over, with "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri" and "Lady Bird" taking home the top prizes for best drama and comedy or musical, respectively.

Now you may be thinking these are the two front-runners for the Oscar Awards - which they very well might be, but the idea of the Golden Globes being an Academy Awards predictor is more complicated than whoever wins this, will win that.

The Globes have been seen as the most important milestone on the road to the Oscars, but why? In the past 10 years the Globes have only predicted the Academy Award for best picture winner half the time.

But if you really want to predict the Oscars, you have to look at the voters.

The Golden Globes are voted on by no more than 100 members of The Hollywood Foreign Press Association, which is a non-profit organization of journalists and photographers who report on the entertainment industry in the U.S. for outlets predominantly outside it.

The Oscars are voted on by 8,500 members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, all of whom actually work in the industry.

Each individual category’s nominees are selected by their peers, so actors choose the actors, and directors choose the directors, then everyone votes for everyone else’s nominees.

So why are we listening to the Hollywood Foreign Press? The real place to look is Hollywood's guilds.

These individual guild awards are presided over by one's peers, just as the nominations for the Academy Awards are selected, so it figures that these awards are often the best predictors for a given category.

The Producer's Guild of America (PGA) has correctly predicted the Best Picture winner eight out of of the last 10 years.

The Director's Guild of America (DGA) has correctly predicted the Best Director nine out of 10 years.

The Screen Actor's Guild (SAG) has predicted the Best Actor seven out of 10 and Best Actress eight out of 10.

Truthfully, the Golden Globes has a great track record with the acting categories, though I chalk that one up to everyone thinking they know what great acting looks like.

Worst movies of 2017, according to Rotten Tomatoes
Worst movies of 2017, according to Rotten Tomatoes
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The film industry has gone through a lot in 2017, and the effects are sure to run far into 2018.

The Golden Globes are now out of the way, so we know awards season will continue despite the controversy around famed Hollywood producer Harvey Weinstein's alleged sexual misconduct.

Check out more stories on Circa.com:
Oprah's Golden Globes speech is fueling speculation that she'll run for president
Here are the looks from the Golden Globes red carpet
Here's a look ahead at all the movie reboots in 2018

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